Myanmar’s Prospects for Post-Coup Foreign Trade & Investment

 ASEAN Briefing, Feb. 3, 2021

Following Monday’s military coup, life in Myanmar appears to be rapidly returning to normal. However, big questions remain over what happens next and especially the prospects for existing and future foreign investment in the country. We examine the possibilities. 

What happened and why? 

The military moved in because of an alleged ten million vote discrepancy in the November national elections and challenged this result. The Myanmar election commission basically told them to get lost – there is no procedure in the Constitution to allow a recount. That situation was inflamed by a statement published last week by the Diplomatic Missions of Australia; Canada; the Delegation of the EU and European Union; Denmark, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, and Sweden; as well as Switzerland, the United Kingdom, the United States, Norway, and New Zealand which stated: 

“We affirm our support for Myanmar’s democratic transition and efforts to promote peace, human rights, and development in the country. We look forward to the peaceful convening of the Parliament on February 1 and the election of the President and speakers.  Once again, we congratulate the people of Myanmar on their historic participation in the country’s recent general election.  We urge the military, and all other parties in the country, to adhere to democratic norms, and we oppose any attempt to alter the outcome of the elections or impede Myanmar’s democratic transition.  We support all those who work toward greater democratic freedoms, lasting peace, and inclusive prosperity for the people of Myanmar.” 

This means the perceptions are different: The West thinks the coup was anti-democratic, the Myanmar military feel they were upholding the democratic process and preventing fraud. The fact there was no provision for any recount and the pressure to accept the results by Western Embassies in Myanmar caused the Military to act. They have subsequently stated they will remain in power for a period of one year and will arrange new elections. 

There are some ironies here on behalf of the West, many nations had called for the elected leader of Myanmar, Aung San Suu Kyi, to be ‘stripped of her Nobel Peace Prize’ and to face sanctions and possibly criminal proceedings in view of inactions relating to alleged genocide of Myanmar’s Muslim Rohingya people. Many had called for her imprisonment. Now she is being held under house arrest by the Military, they are calling for her release. Clearly, the Western political perspective is inconsistent. 

The prospects for sanctions  

Most of the military personnel now in power in Myanmar are already under sanctions by the United States. General Min Aung Hlaing, the Commander-In-Chief, is unable to travel to the United States and has had assets there frozen, although new President Biden has stated additional sanctions will also be imposed ‘shortly’. This term is vague and can be interpreted in several ways.

In full: https://www.aseanbriefing.com/news/myanmars-prospects-for-post-coup-foreign-trade-investment/

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